
2025
NEW ZEALAND AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT AND BIODIVERSITY REPORT
Climate vulnerability and risk assessments in marine ecosystems, with a special focus on fisheries in Aotearoa (New Zealand)
DG Boyce, DP Tittensor, KE Schleit, S Fuller
Abstract
o This report examines the approaches to evaluating the impact of climate change on fish and
marine ecosystems, particularly in New Zealand.
o Climate change is already altering where fish live and the productivity of our oceans, and it
could intensify.
o We reviewed 75 studies from around the world to understand how scientists assess the risks
that climate change poses to fisheries.
o We reviewed various methods for assessing climate risk, including expert opinion, trait-based
methods, computer models, and combinations of these approaches.
o Five case studies show how these tools can be used to understand which fish species and
fishing communities are most at risk.
o The best approaches consider not only the biology of fish but also factors such as fishing
infrastructure and community resilience.
o These assessments enable managers and governments to determine how to protect the ocean
and plan for its future.
o Doing this work now will help make our fisheries more sustainable and better prepared for a
changing climate.